Summary statistics

Column 1

Number of observations

1383

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Column 2

Last update

September 03 2019

Success rate by treatment

Weeks

Column 1

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Column 2

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Strata

Column 1

Success rate by stratum

Column 2

Distribution across strata

Tabulated data

The following tables have treatment in columns and strata in rows.

Column 1

Total number of observations

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 20 19 31 18
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 42 35 41 40
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 1 3 2 2
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 3 1 6 6
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 52 38 55 48
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 16 13 12 18
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 2 3 4 2
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 2 0 0 2
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 23 24 25 46
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 27 65 51 41
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 9 7 3 2
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 19 11 16 20
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 40 62 68 44
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 22 36 29 22
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 20 13 23 13
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 9 9 25 22

Column 2

Total number of successes

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 1 0 1 1
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 3 2 3 4
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0 0 0 0
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 1 1
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 2 0 0 0
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0 0 1 1
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 1 0 0 0
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 0 0
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0 0 0 4
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 1 6 7 6
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 1 3 1 0
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 1 0 0 2
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 1 4 2 1
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 3 3 3 2
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 1 1 1 0
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 3 2

Column 3

Success rates

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.00 0.03 0.06
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.10
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.17
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.06
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 NaN NaN 0.00
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.04 0.09 0.14 0.15
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.11 0.43 0.33 0.00
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.10
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.02 0.06 0.03 0.02
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.14 0.08 0.10 0.09
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.05 0.08 0.04 0.00
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.09

Parameter estimates

Column 1

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.06 0.03 0.05 0.07
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.09
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.09
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.04
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.07
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.09 0.06 0.06 0.07
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.08
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.05 0.09 0.10 0.11
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.19 0.10 0.07
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.08
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.05
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.05 0.04 0.09 0.08

Column 2

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.27 0.09 0.20 0.45
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.18 0.16 0.20 0.46
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.22 0.21 0.24 0.33
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.13 0.20 0.30 0.36
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.49 0.09 0.17 0.26
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.12 0.11 0.39 0.39
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.39 0.18 0.17 0.27
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.19 0.27 0.25 0.29
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.10 0.06 0.12 0.72
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.03 0.19 0.34 0.43
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.08 0.69 0.15 0.08
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.22 0.12 0.13 0.54
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.15 0.48 0.15 0.23
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.31 0.22 0.23 0.24
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.21 0.36 0.21 0.22
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.10 0.10 0.43 0.37

Column 3

Current assignment probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.26 0.12 0.21 0.41
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.19 0.18 0.21 0.42
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.22 0.22 0.24 0.31
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.16 0.21 0.29 0.34
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.44 0.12 0.18 0.26
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.14 0.14 0.36 0.36
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.36 0.19 0.18 0.26
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.20 0.26 0.25 0.28
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.13 0.10 0.14 0.63
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.08 0.20 0.33 0.40
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.11 0.60 0.17 0.11
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.22 0.14 0.15 0.48
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.17 0.43 0.17 0.23
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.30 0.22 0.23 0.24
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.22 0.34 0.22 0.23
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.13 0.13 0.39 0.34

Inference, parameters

Column 2

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp (0.01, 0.12) (0.00, 0.09) (0.01, 0.10) (0.02, 0.13)
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp (0.03, 0.12) (0.02, 0.12) (0.03, 0.13) (0.04, 0.15)
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp (0.01, 0.15) (0.00, 0.17) (0.01, 0.16) (0.02, 0.16)
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.14) (0.00, 0.21) (0.03, 0.20) (0.03, 0.18)
Syr,F,< HS,never emp (0.02, 0.09) (0.00, 0.06) (0.00, 0.07) (0.01, 0.08)
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp (0.00, 0.10) (0.00, 0.11) (0.02, 0.16) (0.02, 0.13)
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp (0.02, 0.22) (0.00, 0.17) (0.01, 0.14) (0.02, 0.15)
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.15) (0.00, 0.23) (0.01, 0.19) (0.02, 0.15)
Jor,M,< HS,never emp (0.00, 0.09) (0.00, 0.08) (0.00, 0.09) (0.04, 0.14)
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.10) (0.04, 0.14) (0.05, 0.18) (0.06, 0.18)
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp (0.02, 0.16) (0.06, 0.39) (0.03, 0.25) (0.02, 0.15)
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.12) (0.00, 0.11) (0.00, 0.10) (0.03, 0.15)
Jor,F,< HS,never emp (0.01, 0.09) (0.03, 0.12) (0.01, 0.08) (0.01, 0.09)
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp (0.04, 0.18) (0.03, 0.15) (0.04, 0.16) (0.03, 0.15)
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp (0.02, 0.12) (0.01, 0.17) (0.02, 0.11) (0.01, 0.12)
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.11) (0.00, 0.12) (0.04, 0.17) (0.03, 0.15)

Column 4

90% credible sets, plotted

Inference, treatment effects

Column 1

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Column 2

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Policy comparisons

Column 1

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.002 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.008, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0. \end{align*}\]

Column 2

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (-0.01, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (0.00, 0.00) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (-0.01, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (0.00, 0.00) \end{align*}\]

Source data

Source data, sorted by date